by David LeMieux
Let X equal the amount of time since an event, E, has occurred. Let Op equal the predicted occurrences of E over the lifespan of the event's perpetrator measured in time, L, and let Ok equal the known occurrences of E.
The probability of E increases as X increases according to:
P(E) = (X(Op - Ok))/L
*thanks to Steve Astle for the inspiration.
**this is also known as the Gambler's Fallacy
***I love The Onion