by David LeMieux

Let X equal the amount of time since an event, E, has occurred. Let Op equal the predicted occurrences of E over the lifespan of the event's perpetrator measured in time, L, and let Ok equal the known occurrences of E.

The probability of E increases as X increases according to:

P(E) = (X(Op - Ok))/L

*thanks to Steve Astle for the inspiration.

**this is also known as the Gambler's Fallacy

***I love The Onion